Some slots have been up for grabs at Tokyo Haneda Airport, and two US airlines have been competing for them — American proposed launching a New York to Tokyo Haneda flight, while United proposed launching a Houston to Tokyo Haneda flight.
The United States Department of Transportation (DOT) has just made its decision, and it sounds like American will be adding a new long haul route out of New York!
In this post:
American will offer New York to Tokyo Haneda service
American has been awarded the rights to launch a new route between New York (JFK) and Tokyo Haneda (HND). The exact start date for the service hasn’t yet been announced, but I’d expect it to launch in the coming months. American is expected to operate the 6,772-mile flight with the following schedule:
New York to Tokyo Haneda departing 10:00AM arriving 1:05PM (+1 day)
Tokyo Haneda to New York departing 3:05PM arriving 3:10PM
American will use a Boeing 777-200ER for the route, featuring 273 seats. This includes 37 business class seats, 24 premium economy seats, and 212 economy class seats. Flights aren’t yet on sale, though I’ll be sure to report back when they are.
This will be American’s third route to Tokyo Haneda, as the airline otherwise serves the destination from Dallas (DFW) and Los Angeles (LAX).
I’m curious to see how American performs in this market:
- Admittedly New York to Tokyo is a big market, with a lot of demand between the two cities
- Currently All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines each operate two daily flights between New York and Tokyo, while United operates two daily flights between Newark and Tokyo
- For some time, American had a big growth strategy in New York thanks to a partnership with JetBlue, whereby JetBlue would provide feed for American’s long haul flights; however, that partnership was discontinued
While I’m not surprised to see American trying to launch this route, I’m not convinced this is going to prove to be terribly lucrative. I mean, who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins?
American will have a higher cost structure than other airlines in the market, while probably also being at a revenue disadvantage. But then again, this is part of a joint venture, so maybe that makes it work.
American beat United for these Tokyo Haneda slots
For some background, Tokyo has two major airports — Narita Airport (NRT) and Haneda Airport (HND). Haneda is much more convenient for those visiting Tokyo, but historically most long haul flights have operated to Narita. However, Haneda has increasingly been opening up slots for long haul flights, which airlines have been very excited about.
Back in 2019, the DOT was in a position to award US airlines a dozen additional slots for Haneda (Japanese airlines were offered a similar number of slots). The DOT is supposed to award these based on what’s in the best interest of the public, so airlines try to make the case for why a particular route is in the public’s best interest.
Those 12 slots ended up being split between four airlines, including American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United. These slots have a “use it or lose it” clause, meaning that if an airline doesn’t operate a route for which it was granted a slot, it will be allocated to another airline.
Due to the pandemic, the DOT had allowed airlines to delay launching these flights. That dormancy waiver ended as of October 2023, and Delta chose to give back some slots, as the airline didn’t operate the Portland to Tokyo Haneda route that it was granted rights for.
Following that, the DOT invited US airlines to make their case for why they should be awarded these slots. The requests were from American and United, and frankly neither airline had a terribly compelling request:
- United wanted to add a Houston to Tokyo Haneda route; however, that route is already served by joint venture partner All Nippon Airways, and United would cut its Houston to Tokyo Narita route, so there would be no net increase in capacity
- American wanted to add a New York to Tokyo Haneda route; while that route is already served by joint venture partner Japan Airlines, at least American would be adding incremental capacity to Tokyo
So while neither request was terribly exciting, there was more merit to granting these slots to American. It’s just too bad the airline didn’t decide to add service out of another hub, which doesn’t currently have a direct link to Japan.
Bottom line
American has been granted permission to launch daily flights between New York and Tokyo Haneda. This will be American’s third route to Tokyo Haneda, and the only route from the East Coast of the United States.
It made sense for the DOT to award this service to American over United’s proposal from Houston, though I’m still not convinced about the economics of the route. American will have limited capacity, and a worse product and higher costs than other airlines in the market.
What do you make of American launching New York to Tokyo flights?
Hmmmm big decision .. AA or JL ….no contest
"who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines"
How about those flying on US government funds who must fly a US-flagged carrier due to the Fly America Act?
The departure time is perfect for connecting passengers flying in from São Paulo, Brazil (GRU). There is huge demanda from flying from Brazil to Japan due to its historical ties and generations of immigrants. JL used to fly back in the day NRT-JFK-GRU.
Who the heck in their "right" mind would fly on a 15+ yr old tin can with FA's way past their prime and with attitude.
Just flew JAL and they are still awesome on food, service, cabin condition even though the 777 was 14 yrs old out of SFO. 100K AS mile redemption for F/C SFO-HND-BKK (yes, the HND-BKK flight was on 777 with F/C)
MIA-HND would be a much better choice.
MIA has been pushing for a flight to Asia.
-AA would have the market all to themselves. As Lucky states, almost everyone would rather fly JAL/ANA than AA to Japan.
-Obviously MIA is a huge hub.
-All south could feed to MIA.
-Great to avoid winter weather in JFK.
problem is that MIA affords virtually no domestic connections and MIA is in the "opposite corner" of the US from Japan so every Tokyo flight can compete for MIA and Florida traffic
It's also worth noting that DL manages to make ATL-East Asia work well but ATL is 600 miles north of MIA and allows connections to much more of the country.
And DL also has a fairly extensive network from ATL to...
problem is that MIA affords virtually no domestic connections and MIA is in the "opposite corner" of the US from Japan so every Tokyo flight can compete for MIA and Florida traffic
It's also worth noting that DL manages to make ATL-East Asia work well but ATL is 600 miles north of MIA and allows connections to much more of the country.
And DL also has a fairly extensive network from ATL to Latin America although AA at DFW and UA at IAH compete for some of that - and AA will compete for some of it over JFK.
But more and more Latin America to East Asia traffic is being carried over the Middle East hubs.
Lol many americans would rather fly an american airline. They think for some reason it's easier to communicate in English, they are picky with Asian food, etc. It's stupid but true. Not everyone who travels to Japan is actually cultured...
Exactly, why on earth would I choose any US airlines if I can fly out with top 10 Asian airline? Even Delta, the best in the US, is just subpar at rank 20 among the world.
It comes down to the massive size of the US airlines and their ability to serve so much of the US; even JVs can't match the economics of US carrier metal to metal connections.
The US carriers offer the service they do because people are willing to pay for it.
Also Hawaiian gave up night time slot in HND and UA would take it for HND-GUM service (night slot in Haneda is not suitable for mainland flight - as AA gave up their NY flight with them years ago).
It is always nicer to see the slots are in use rather than being dormant.
American should fly from EWR to HND so one world passenger have a choice to fly out of either JFK or EWR just like the ANA UA partnership.
Why would American choose to fly out of EWR? Or anyone for that matter. It's not like they have a ton of OW partners or other connectivity feeding into EWR. JFK is the right choice between the two
Agree with your comment on the Japanese carriers having a better hard and soft product. The idea of competition is to provide choice for customers. Either AA lifts its game or offers lower prices to attract customers.
Infinitely better is an overstatement imo. Recently flown JL 777 J and 787 J several times and it was lackluster. Not that much better than American’s. I feel the Japan airlines have degraded over time while US ones have improved, making their difference smaller.
Having flown both in the last 2 years, nothing has changed. Infinitely better is spot on. Yes, Japanese airlines may have slipped slightly, but US airlines were still the trash they always were (relatively).
Surprised with an East coast service, as closure of Russian airspace, as Lucky expected with AA lower yield may not be viable for an east coast route.
Flights to Japan from the East coast don't usually fly over Russia even pre-war. Flights usually fly over Fairbanks, then eventually cross the Bering and Pacific east of the Russian peninsula before reaching Japan.
Why? What is the purpose of serving a route that a JV partner already operates? Especially when that partner has 3 inches more legroom in regular economy not to mention all around better service. And from a non-hub market that they decided they no longer care about? Unless they’ve decided that they want to move back into JFK this is a waste of a slot that could be used on unserved Philly-Tokyo nearby or from one of the many other AA hubs.
Probably because no one wants to connect in PHL to fly to Tokyo? Do you really think there's enough people in Philly to sustain this route?
Ben asks: "I mean, who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins?"
Many people in the real world can't buy J fares. For those people, upgrade chances matter. AA MCE + SWU possibility to J is a reason. JAL's Y is good, but if I've got the chance to upgrade, I'll take AA's MCE.
@ Bob -- I definitely didn't phrase the question correctly. You're absolutely right, those upgrading, those booking saver award tickets, etc., would probably gladly fly American. I should have phrased it as asking who in their right mind who will also make the flight profitable would choose to fly American over a competitor.
Of course I also totally like the idea of using a systemwide upgrade for business class, but flying a sub-$1,000 roundtrip ticket...
@ Bob -- I definitely didn't phrase the question correctly. You're absolutely right, those upgrading, those booking saver award tickets, etc., would probably gladly fly American. I should have phrased it as asking who in their right mind who will also make the flight profitable would choose to fly American over a competitor.
Of course I also totally like the idea of using a systemwide upgrade for business class, but flying a sub-$1,000 roundtrip ticket to Tokyo and ending up in business class won't be profitable for American.
But both ANA and JAL has the most premium heavy configuration serving the route, which has very little EY capacity. While AA is sending an 777-200ER, which provided a lot more EY capacity.
But not sure if the flight will have full payload, due longer flying time for not entering Russian Air space.
It’s almost like AA already flies a route to HND 2x daily that JL and NH do and somehow customers pick aa
Your comment is kind of dramatic, lucky.
Ben let’s get on with this new JAL first class review . I would expedite . I’m already seeing a lot of stories and videos of people who have flown already.
Being part of the JV with Japan Air Lines the route gives another route to Asia and should be successful if marketed correctly with the ability to tap into all the destinations that JAL operates. No other US based carrier was serving the route from JFK and it was born to happen.
Not a new route, I've flown JFK to HND on AA about 10 years ago
No you didn’t lol.
Not sure why I said lol. But you flew JFK-NRT for sure, unless a diversion occurred.
@DFW Flyer -
AA used to fly JFK-HND, not NRT. So, yes, Luke did fly AA JFK-HND.
AA had both. They had a daytime JFK-NRT flight for several years in the 2000s (I flew it in 2005 or 2006), and then had a late night JFK-HND flight for a shorter time in the early 2010s.
AA flew JFK-HND from the first granting of US slot, through December 1, 2013.
Apologies to Luke. News to me, thanks!
Part of me still kinda wished they operated HND from PHX. After all, DEN has a smaller population and economy, and similar-ish geographic location to PHX, yet it has service to TYO (albeit to NRT). Anyone knows why PHX doesn’t have service to TYO?
Because it's a relatively low-yield market with little international O&D demand.
When did AA ever fly PHX-HND?
Never, although way back in the early 90s America West had a short-lived PHX-HNL-NGO route with almost no passengers.
Im curious as to why American didnt request the Haneda slots to fly from Miami, knowing how MIA desperately want nonstop flights to East Asia, maybe they would have gotten some subsidies to make it happen. And at 7469 miles, the distance is shorter that the current longest AA flight from LAX to Sydney and also way shorter than their longest flown flight from Dallas to Hong Kong.
That being said, a new flight...
Im curious as to why American didnt request the Haneda slots to fly from Miami, knowing how MIA desperately want nonstop flights to East Asia, maybe they would have gotten some subsidies to make it happen. And at 7469 miles, the distance is shorter that the current longest AA flight from LAX to Sydney and also way shorter than their longest flown flight from Dallas to Hong Kong.
That being said, a new flight to Haneda from Charlotte, Philadelphia or Phoenix would also have been more exciting additions than JFK.
holy cow, Ben.
Some of these folks are fixated.
And AA's role will be to carry economy and "discount" business passengers.
JL has a great product but they have very few economy seats and they don't sell every business class fare at the top tier amount.
JL might benefit by allowing AA to carry award revenue so JL can carry "paid" customers.
Given that it is a JV, it all comes out in the wash but AA is the service underdog in this market.
Aa is gonna be fine.
Customers airlines care about book on frequency and aa/JL know that. My guess is aa will replace JL on the route and JL will open a new route from HNd, probably Seattle if we’re being honest.
Your amusing rant that aa is gonna rely on mileage redemptions lol. I know you hope that but c’mon…
Your average J customer doesn’t book on the best J redemption deal like...
Aa is gonna be fine.
Customers airlines care about book on frequency and aa/JL know that. My guess is aa will replace JL on the route and JL will open a new route from HNd, probably Seattle if we’re being honest.
Your amusing rant that aa is gonna rely on mileage redemptions lol. I know you hope that but c’mon…
Your average J customer doesn’t book on the best J redemption deal like lucky regardless of date and time. They book on timing and a bed with a decent glass of wine to get to Tokyo or beyond when they need to be there because their company told them to be. The CEOs flying this route are private or F on NH or JL. As much as bloggers love to rant about the champagne served, delta and aa know their customers don’t care (be honest. Delta isn’t serving anything close to JL either because they know their customers)
no, MAX,
AA operates premium configured 777-300ERs that are becoming A350-1000s.
AA will not replace anything JL has.
AA and JL share revenue - based on the capacity contribution that each carrier brings to the JV. This new route just adds a little more of JL's money that AA can claim.
and data shows that AA gets far lower average fares where it has flown in the same market with JL...
no, MAX,
AA operates premium configured 777-300ERs that are becoming A350-1000s.
AA will not replace anything JL has.
AA and JL share revenue - based on the capacity contribution that each carrier brings to the JV. This new route just adds a little more of JL's money that AA can claim.
and data shows that AA gets far lower average fares where it has flown in the same market with JL so it is solely a dream of yours that AA is going to carry anywhere near the premium revenue that JL carries. They won't.
I didn't say that DL carries average fares comparable to JL and NH. UA doesn't either.
I mean JL and NH operate premium configured 777-300ERs and JL's will become A350-1000s
It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote and replied by going off on a random topic.
Yet another weird attempt for you to bring a350 nonsense into this conversation :). Yes, I know what JL and NH fly on jfk-HND. So? Frequency and timing do still matter. I never said the aa 777 product is as nice as JL though frankly your average corporate customer in NYC isn’t reading OMAAT or tpg...
It’s like you didn’t even read what I wrote and replied by going off on a random topic.
Yet another weird attempt for you to bring a350 nonsense into this conversation :). Yes, I know what JL and NH fly on jfk-HND. So? Frequency and timing do still matter. I never said the aa 777 product is as nice as JL though frankly your average corporate customer in NYC isn’t reading OMAAT or tpg desperately searching for trip reviews to decide which airline to fly, they just aren’t.
you are so weirdly obsessed and have no grasp of a depreciated asset vs fuel economy, it’s the same reason delta keeps around around ancient 767s
Aa already flies lax-hnd 2x daily vs JL, NH, and others and holds its own quite well. Your dire predictions about them competing against them out of JfK are amusing but only that, amusing absent knowledge.
The average corporate customer knows precisely what products are available on each of the US carriers and will book the best that their corporate agreement allows. JL and NH target the premium customer and don't even try to go for volume in the NYC market with many economy seats.
As for the 767 - which is yours and others favorite whipping boy - DL managed to generate $4 billion more revenue in 2023 than UA...
The average corporate customer knows precisely what products are available on each of the US carriers and will book the best that their corporate agreement allows. JL and NH target the premium customer and don't even try to go for volume in the NYC market with many economy seats.
As for the 767 - which is yours and others favorite whipping boy - DL managed to generate $4 billion more revenue in 2023 than UA and $5 billion more than AA, DL burned 200 million less gallons which is 5% less than AA and 7% less than UA, and spent over $1 billion less on fuel while having the lowest debt of the big 3. DL's fleet and fuel strategy is the best in the industry. DL spent less per gallon on jet fuel than WN which hedges. The refinery makes a big difference
Fuel bill for 2023
AA $12.251 billion
DL $11.069 billion
UA $12.651 billion
Fuel efficient aircraft matter THE MOST on longhaul international routes, esp. on the Pacific. That is why DL's Pacific fleet other than HNL-HND has all new generation engines and the 767s fly short routes to S. America, Europe and Hawaii.
AA will spend $25,000 more fuel on every JFK-HND flight using the 777-200ER compared to the 787-9.
UA also uses the 777-200ER on EWR-HND but the 787-9 to NRT which gets less revenue.
and even Delta's A330-300s burn 15% less fuel than the 777-200ER.
As hard as it for you to accept, DL made the right decision in getting rid of the 777 and buying new generation A339s and A350s and AA and UA will pay the price for holding onto their much larger fleets of both versions of 777s
It truly is funny seeing you try to use raw data absent knowledge
Using a fuel bill absent stage length? Cute, but your usual ignorance trying to sound smart
And as we’ve discussed
There are many reasons surrounding delta’s profits, trying to say they have the most fuel efficient fleet as a reason is laughable. Delta themselves says their monopoly hubs are the source of their profits.
Why has delta so desperately tried...
It truly is funny seeing you try to use raw data absent knowledge
Using a fuel bill absent stage length? Cute, but your usual ignorance trying to sound smart
And as we’ve discussed
There are many reasons surrounding delta’s profits, trying to say they have the most fuel efficient fleet as a reason is laughable. Delta themselves says their monopoly hubs are the source of their profits.
Why has delta so desperately tried to sell their refinery if it’s so great?
Your spin doctoring is amusing
Your accounting knowledge is laughable and it shows
there is no adjustment that can eliminate the higher fuel burn on AA and UA because of their usage of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel inefficient widebody and their much higher usage of regional jets - of which there is no MAX or NEO version.
Add in the refinery benefit and DL spends far less on fuel and that benefit goes directly to the bottom line and allows DL to compete in...
there is no adjustment that can eliminate the higher fuel burn on AA and UA because of their usage of the 777-200/ER which is the most fuel inefficient widebody and their much higher usage of regional jets - of which there is no MAX or NEO version.
Add in the refinery benefit and DL spends far less on fuel and that benefit goes directly to the bottom line and allows DL to compete in major markets. DL has focused its competitive efforts on AA - because AA does a poor job of retaining business travelers - but will be focusing on UA in longhaul international markets in the next few years.
NYC, BOS and LAX are not exactly monopoly markets, MAX, and yet DL is the largest carrier in all of those.
And, if monopolizing your hub markets were all it took to be profitable, why couldn't AA and UA figure out how to do that in the 45 years since US domestic markets were deregulated?
WN has higher market share in its hubs than AA and UA.
I THOUGHT THIS ARTICLE WAS ABOUT AMERICAN AIRLINES FLYING TO HANEDA, JAPAN.
In a zany kind of way, delta comes out ahead here. I just am not sure how !!
since you insist, the Delta "connection" is because this weakens UA's position in NYC which matters to DL since UA, not AA, is DL's real competition in NYC
UA is a repeated loser this week.
HA also supposedly gave up its nighttime HND flight so UA might be able to apply for that for GUM but UA really only wanted another HND flight to block AA and DL from getting anything else.
But they will shift a GUM-NRT flight to HND just as they proposed doing with IAH
Maybe Tim,
Here’s the thing. UA is the largest international carrier by far, that matters to me and some others.
When and if that changes, we shall see. Is there path for DL to catch up someday? Sure. But it’s just a bet. Not wanting to happen, but please pray to not have any manufacturing issues in A350-1k. For just one example in grand scheme of things that could make growth plans go...
Maybe Tim,
Here’s the thing. UA is the largest international carrier by far, that matters to me and some others.
When and if that changes, we shall see. Is there path for DL to catch up someday? Sure. But it’s just a bet. Not wanting to happen, but please pray to not have any manufacturing issues in A350-1k. For just one example in grand scheme of things that could make growth plans go awry, like UA just now.
And before you get to profit, I’m a passenger, Not a share holder. Don’t care if DL takes over Apple in market value.
And trust me, UA, AA and even DL will be around for next 10 ++ years. Govt will make sure of that
I'm not talking about anyone's demise.
You and others love to talk about international size but actual facts escape you.
DL will retake its position over the Atlantic as the largest carrier by revenue in 2024.
DL will overtake UA as the largest carrier in Latin America because of the Latam JV. DL is flying 767s where UA is flying 737s and DL is flying A350s where UA is flying 787s or...
I'm not talking about anyone's demise.
You and others love to talk about international size but actual facts escape you.
DL will retake its position over the Atlantic as the largest carrier by revenue in 2024.
DL will overtake UA as the largest carrier in Latin America because of the Latam JV. DL is flying 767s where UA is flying 737s and DL is flying A350s where UA is flying 787s or 777s.
HND growth is limited by the treaty between the US and Japan. NRT doesn't work as a local market because HND pulls all of the high value traffic.
ICN has growth capacity and DL will grow as soon as the KE-OZ merger is decided one way or another.
AA operates 5 flights to Japan and Korea and that will grow to 6 with JFK-HND. DL operates 10 and that will grow to 11 with ATL-ICN #2. UA operates 10 and that will grow to 11 if they get GUM.
DL is expected to launch LAX-ICN later this year, followed by JFK and SLC in 2025.
DL will be the largest US carrier from the US to Japan and Korea combined on its own metal.
Given that flights to China are capped and all US carriers are or can be at the same level - DL and UA have asked for equal amounts of flights, DL will be the largest carrier on its own metal to Japan, S. Korea and China.
And if you want to include JV partners, KE is a larger transpacific carrier than JL or NH.
The DL/KE JV is larger than AA/JL or UA/NH and the DL/KE JV will continue to grow.
UA's size in Asia comes from its destinations in HKG and south. DL is re-adding TPE and will keep adding flights from the US to the Pacific Rim with the 36 A350s it has on order, most of which will be delivered in the next 5 years.
UA's position in Asia is threatened. AA doesn't care because there is nothing they can do.
You love to talk about size but let's hear your response when confronted w/ facts.
UA got a big boost in its international size because it held onto old 777s after the pandemic.
UA has a much less efficient fleet than DL and DL does have the capacity coming in along w/ the JVs to overtake UA across the Atlantic, to Latin America and could easily reach parity w/ UA across the Pacific.
UA burned 6% more fuel than DL in 2023, generated less passenger revenue, and earned $2 billion less in profits. You might think those numbers don't matter but DL has the upper hand in growth and Scott Kirby knows it. You can't earn $2 billion less than a competitor on very similar amounts of revenue and do the same things that the other guy can do.
He is running scared. The MAX 9 grounding and the FAA cap on Boeing production has him in a tailspin.
His strategies are in severe crisis.
UA has long been a distant 3rd to AA and DL domestically and DL could well match if not overtake them internationally within a couple years.
Now tell me why you are fixated with UA because of their size.
Why are you comparing UA and DL size to Japan “and Korea”? The article is about Japan, a country with a much larger economy than Korea. You randomly set the goal posts to suit your agenda. Should we say UA has more flights than DL to “Japan, Korea, HKG, and SIN”?
UA is able to take advantage of that huge O&D in Japan while also capitalizing on the power of their JV with NH....
Why are you comparing UA and DL size to Japan “and Korea”? The article is about Japan, a country with a much larger economy than Korea. You randomly set the goal posts to suit your agenda. Should we say UA has more flights than DL to “Japan, Korea, HKG, and SIN”?
UA is able to take advantage of that huge O&D in Japan while also capitalizing on the power of their JV with NH.
Yes DL just ordered 20 A350s but they have double that number of 767s to retire, all while UA has a much larger widebody fleet with many more premium seats, with *150* 787s on order. After retirements and reduced delivery rates are taken into account, what is the net increase in DL’s fleet this year.
UA has significantly more growth planned than DL. Even with reduced delivery rates, UA, after taking retirements into account, is still expecting a net fleet increase of over 100 planes. They’ll soon be number one domestically as well as internationally. UA will have over 1,000 mainline planes by the end of 2024, again, taking into account reduced delivery rates and planned retirements.
Mark,
because Japan and Korea serve the same purpose.
They are local and connecting markets.
DL is the largest US carrier at HND and HND is all about the local market.
You would like to talk about UA's size including NRT but NRT still exists because of its ability to connect traffic to the rest of Asia, something HND doesn't do very well. That's why HND plus NRT plus ICN is...
Mark,
because Japan and Korea serve the same purpose.
They are local and connecting markets.
DL is the largest US carrier at HND and HND is all about the local market.
You would like to talk about UA's size including NRT but NRT still exists because of its ability to connect traffic to the rest of Asia, something HND doesn't do very well. That's why HND plus NRT plus ICN is a legitimate comparison.
DL already had 16 A350s and 12 A330-900s on order and added 20 A350-1000s so DL actually 48 growth aircraft that are Pacific capable. DL is also converting the ex-Latam A350s to DL standard configuration (actually the new more premium configuration of 275 seats) so DL really will have 57 additional transpacific capable aircraft in the next 5 years and 25 of them in the next 3. That is more than enough to do whatever Delta needs to do across the Pacific.
The Delta order is not a replacement for all of the 767s. And it is always funny how you and others think that DL has to use its new aircraft deliveries to replace its 767s but UA's new deliveries are for growth even though the DL and UA 767 fleets are almost identically aged.
UA also has 75 777-200ERs that are not only older than DL's A330 and A350 fleets but far less fuel efficient.
UA simply will not be using its 150 787s even predominantly to grow - but if they do hold onto all of the 777s, they will be competing with much more costs. DL already earned $2 billion more in profits in 2023; if UA wants to saddle itself w/ even more costs, I'm sure DL would love to see UA keep grasping for growth.
and, DL will reach 1000 mainline aircraft before UA. DL has just 35 more to go and some of those will be reactivations or inductions of used or parked airplanes.
UA execs just said they do not expect to receive their MAX orders for 2024 anywhere close to schedule - making their deliveries necessary to reach 1000 much longer.
UA has trumpeted size for years and DL, without making a lot of noise, is doing what UA said it would do.
And specific to NYC, DL has already handedly overtaken UA to S. America w/ GIG, GRU, EZE, and BOG plus MEX, CUN, STI, SDQ, and SJU - a longer list than either AA or UA. Throw in LIM and SCL via the Latam JV and DL has handedly become the largest carrier from NYC to Latin America. LAX has a different but smaller list but the principle is the same.
DL is happy to let AA and UA duke it out for NYC-HND. DL has already taken S. America, will retake US-Europe in 2024; UA execs just said they are not growing to Europe this year while DL is. DL will add JFK-ICN and India. Even if UA adds more longhaul routes, they will be doing it with 787s which are smaller than either version of the A350.
UA committed to the MAX and is getting burnt based on the slowdown of deliveries and stuck w/ the 787 when the A350 is a larger and more capable aircraft.
UA is simply not going to have the international dominance it has now or you or they thinks it will have.
Kirby's strategies of dominance and growth are vaporizing before his eyes.
Tim, I think his point re: Japan vs Korea is not that it's not an apt comparison, but that Japan's economy and population are nearly 3x that of Korea's. It doesn't matter how big the DL/KE JV is in terms of capacity (although by my count, UA/NH has 29 flights between the US and Japan/Korea, while DL/KE only has 26). DL might be the biggest US carrier at HND, but you have to compare that...
Tim, I think his point re: Japan vs Korea is not that it's not an apt comparison, but that Japan's economy and population are nearly 3x that of Korea's. It doesn't matter how big the DL/KE JV is in terms of capacity (although by my count, UA/NH has 29 flights between the US and Japan/Korea, while DL/KE only has 26). DL might be the biggest US carrier at HND, but you have to compare that to the UA/NH JV as a whole, and you can't also fully discount NRT given that it handles a good chunk of connecting traffic.
All things considered, you'd rather have NH or JL as a JV partner than KE, simply because O&D between Japan and the US is both higher yield AND greater volume. Even just looking at leisure traffic, there's way more premium leisure demand to Japan (between TYO, KIX, and CTS) vs just SEL in Korea (which is more of a mid tier leisure destination in the grand scheme of things). Sure, there's the secondary concern of connecting traffic, but for UA, they either have direct service to the high yield markets (TPE, HKG, SIN, maybe DEL), or it's low yield leisure traffic (BKK, KUL, SGN, HAN, a good number of Chinese cities) that is either captured by the JV (via NRT) or not worth pursuing.
Finally, it's also worth calling out that both NH and JL are considered better airlines than KE from a customer experience standpoint - probably to the same degree that DL is better than UA / AA, so maybe that's a wash.
Maybe to put a finer point onto this - it doesn't matter how fast DL / KE grows service to ICN. They're competing for dominance of a much smaller pie. I'd rather be UA / NH, where I already have a dominant position in a pie that's at least 3x as lucrative.
II,
you don't understand that ICN is for connections just as NRT is.
NRT no longer is viable for the local Tokyo market because there are now so many flights to HND - even though they are still limited.
When you compare HND to HND, DL still has the largest presence.
And if you compare the amount of local Tokyo traffic and revenue that goes just through NRT compared to the...
II,
you don't understand that ICN is for connections just as NRT is.
NRT no longer is viable for the local Tokyo market because there are now so many flights to HND - even though they are still limited.
When you compare HND to HND, DL still has the largest presence.
And if you compare the amount of local Tokyo traffic and revenue that goes just through NRT compared to the amount of local traffic and revenue at ICN, ICN is now larger than NRT.
South Korea is a smaller market than Japan but it has one major transpacific airport while Japan splits the Tokyo market between NRT and HND and most of the local market now goes to HND - where DL competes quite favorably.
Totally understand the point of NRT being for connections vs HND - the point I'm trying to make is that the UA/NH JV is able to compete vs DL/KE JV on transpacific coverage because NH still offers connections to much of Asia out of NRT. It might be the case that the coverage is more limited, but it's not a slam dunk for DL/KE.
Now comparing HND to HND - sure, DL may have the...
Totally understand the point of NRT being for connections vs HND - the point I'm trying to make is that the UA/NH JV is able to compete vs DL/KE JV on transpacific coverage because NH still offers connections to much of Asia out of NRT. It might be the case that the coverage is more limited, but it's not a slam dunk for DL/KE.
Now comparing HND to HND - sure, DL may have the most direct HND service out of the US carriers, but that is a meaningless comparison without factoring in NH or JL. Combined, UA/NH blows DL out of the water. This also isn't taking into account the fact that DL's HND service outside of LAX is mostly from secondary cities (DTW, MSP, ATL, SEA), where the level of premium O&D is questionable compared to SFO, ORD, EWR/JFK.
I can concede UA losing on customer experience to DL, but even you have to admit DL does not hold a candle to NH in that regard. So again, it comes down to - who would I rather have as a JV partner? I think UA chose well in NH, and I think overall, the UA/NH JV beats out DL/KE handily if you just look at structural factors related to Japan and Korea's economic positions.
United is a double loser?
They knew they’d lose the daytime HND
Slot but the HA news is great for United from Guam
Sad they a US slot will likely go to a 737 on GUM-HND but I guess we’ll see
I get why HA gave it up
Surprised Delta didn't want to try for this route. It would have been a shoe-in to approve a third competitor in the market over adding another JV Oneworld flight
This slot pair opened up because Delta wasn't operating PDX-HND. They essentially forfeited it so DOT wasn't going to give it back to them for another route.
Delta used the A350 it could have used to start JFK-HND to start a second ATL-ICN on its own metal.
Given the poor YEN to USD exchange rate which makes the US expensive for Japanese, DL does not see value in adding another Tokyo route right now
And DL could have very likely won the route if it asked for it but they still have the largest foreign carrier presence at HND and are building ICN w/ their KE joint venture.
The value of the YEN most certainly decrease demand. Be interesting to see the flight loads of this route. I bet $100 they give up on it in less than 2 years. AA can’t afford losing routes with their debt and higher labor cost. AA is one act of god or global slow down away from chapter 11.
They conceded the PDX route, correct?
yes, Delta returned its PDX-HND route authority
Ok... but the terrible value of JPY should also increase demand from the US to Japan.
that is correct but there are fewer Americans that visit Japan than the other way around.
as US interest rates come back down, the situation will change.
Actions of central banks have a lot greater influence on air travel than alot of people realize
Shame they’re not using Miami! (Phoenix would’ve been acceptable too)
To answer Ben’s question — AAdvantage members that need to re-rqualufy conciergekey. American metal matters for CK evaluation.
If AA is significantly cheaper in paid J on this route then why wouldn’t someone fly AA? AA J soft and hard product certainly crosses the bar as being worthy of paying for at the right price.
@ Matthew -- American and Japan Airlines coordinate fares and share revenue as part of their joint venture, so it wouldn't really be in American's best interest to try to drive down prices in the market. But the bigger point is that having cheaper fares than competitors all while having a way higher cost structure isn't a good way to make money.
They don't really coordinate fares though. AA is often significantly cheaper than JL. Except if you want the AA code (loyalty points) on JL flights, that is often painfully expensive, and more so than JAL.
And to answer Ben's question on "who in their right mind would fly American when they could instead fly with All Nippon Airways or Japan Airlines, which offer an infinitely superior experience in all cabins?", Filipinos who look for the cheapest or most convenient option. And there are plenty in the tri-state area alone.
@ Mike O. -- Of course, plenty of people will take the cheapest option. But ultra long haul economy travelers looking for the cheapest fare also aren't doing much to help a carrier's bottom line and make a route profitable.
Ben, they upgrade on the app. or desktop when they can't (or must pay to) select a seat.
The schedule seems perfect for those connecting to and from MNL as JL and NHs schedule are simply out of whack for connections.